“The week 1 question is: Does Donald Trump’s appeal expand to Melania?” BoxOfficePro’s Daniel Loria tells EW. “The week 2 question is: Is Brett Ratner’s movie any good?”

Melania doc cost Amazon $75 million — will it be a bust at the box office?

"The week 1 question is: Does Donald Trump's appeal expand to Melania?" BoxOfficePro's Daniel Loria tells EW. "The week 2 question is: Is Brett Ratner's movie any good?"

By Ryan Coleman

Ryan Coleman

Ryan Coleman is a news writer for with previous work in MUBI Notebook, Slant, and the LA Review of Books.

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January 28, 2026 8:13 p.m. ET

Melania Trump at the New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 28. Credit:

Jamie McCarthy/Getty

Melania Trump is opening a movie in theaters this weekend, but will anyone show up to see it?

The short answer to that question is: yes. The long answer is complicated.

The new documentary chronicling the life and times of the First Lady in the 20 days leading up to her husband's re-election to the presidency in 2024 is opening in over 1,500 theaters on Friday. That's a remarkably wide release for a documentary — a film form which rarely exerts the same box office pull as fiction features — meaning *Melania *will be easier to see on the big screen than most docs. And premiere projections are trending up, with BoxOfficePro estimating a $1-2 million open last week, but revising to $2-5 million this week. It isn't often a documentary exceeds $3 million in its lifetime gross.

There's just one problem: the phenomenal cost Amazon MGM Studios undertook to license, market, and release the film.

The poster for 'Melania'.

Amazon MGM Studios

The film division of the million-headed hydra run by Jeff Bezos paid an estimated $40 million to acquire *Melania* and has spent an additional $35 million on marketing and promotion. That's $75 million for a film believed to recoup at the very most $5 million in its grand debut — and diminishing returns after an increasingly sluggish January box office are sure to follow.

Daniel Loria, senior vice president and editorial director at BoxOfficePro, the theatrical industry's trade publication, tells EW that he thinks that $5 million figure itself is a "reach."

"I'm not really buying that 4 or 5 number," Loria says. He cites several factors that ought to give Amazon pause, starting with the fact that a 1,500-theater release is "extraordinary" for a documentary, "especially in the post-pandemic era." Then there's the idea that, traditionally, "these sort of public-figure documentaries usually get bought and produced for streaming. That's the real value for these things."

*Melania *isn't an event, in other words, a more-and-more necessary ingredient in box office success. Knowing it will soon be streamable on a service millions already subscribe to may make it too easy to skip in person.

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But there's more. Loria points out that *Melania*'s** **"distributor already spent through a marketing campaign for a wide release last weekend in *Mercy*." That dystopian thriller starring Chris Pratt barely edged *Avatar: Fire and Ash *off the box office throne after a five-week reign. *Mercy *took in just $11.2 million domestically on a $60 million budget that doesn't factor in marketing and promotional costs.

"Now they're releasing another movie, right? And this one is coming out limited. So I think that puts this into context," Loria explains, pointing out that *Mercy *released on nearly 3,500 screens compared to *Melania*'s 1,500 screens.****

Stills from 'Mercy' and 'Send Help,' the two big contenders against 'Melania' at the box office.

Brook Rushton/20th Century Studios; Justin Lubin/Amazon MGM Studios

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Placing *Melania *in another context yields similarly dire results; Loria compares the film with the 2024 documentary *Am I Racist*?*, *from the conservative media company *The Daily Wire*. That film also opened in around 1,500 theaters and targeted a similar political demographic to *Melania *in its marketing.

*Am I Racist* pulled in $4.5 million across its opening weekend, but was made for the comparative pittance of $3 million dollars. While the films are similarly "partisan," Loria notes that *Am I Racist *had a "provocative discourse element" to it that *Melania*, judging by its somber and decorous trailer, lacks.

None of this has stopped Donald Trump from claiming in a Monday Truth Social post that *Melania*, a "MUST WATCH," is "selling out, FAST!"

In addition to *Mercy*, *Melania *will compete with three new releases for box office glory. There's the prime contender, Sam Raimi's horror return *Send Help*, which touts the combined star power of Rachel McAdams and Dylan O'Brien. Then there's Jason Statham's action thriller *Shelter*, and Loria's dark horse, the independently produced sci-fi horror offering *Iron Lung*.

*Melania *was directed by Brett Ratner, his first film since he was accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women in 2017, accusations he has denied. Loria sums up *Melania*'s predicament simply: "I think the week one question is: Does Donald Trump's appeal expand to Melania for a film? The week two question is: Is Brett Ratner's movie any good?"

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